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Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom et al. (2026) — NBER WP 34836

F. Castellaneta

fcastellaneta.com

AI & The CEO Paradox

Everyone uses AI. Nobody sees the impact. But everyone expects a revolution.

~90%

of executives report zero impact of AI on employment or productivity

Yet they predict +1.4% productivity gains in the next 3 years

CEOs expect −0.7% employment. Workers expect +0.5%.

69% of firms use AI but execs average only 1.5h/week

75% plan to adopt within 3 years. Measurable impact? Still zero.

Everyone uses AI. Nobody can measure the impact. Everyone bets on it anyway.

Source: Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom et al. (2026), NBER WP 34836.