Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom et al. (2026) — NBER WP 34836
F. Castellaneta
fcastellaneta.com
AI & The CEO Paradox
Everyone uses AI. Nobody sees the impact. But everyone expects a revolution.
~90%
of executives report zero impact of AI on employment or productivity
Yet they predict +1.4% productivity gains in the next 3 years
CEOs expect −0.7% employment. Workers expect +0.5%.
69% of firms use AI but execs average only 1.5h/week
75% plan to adopt within 3 years. Measurable impact? Still zero.
Everyone uses AI. Nobody can measure the impact. Everyone bets on it anyway.
Source: Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom et al. (2026), NBER WP 34836.