Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom et al. (2026) · NBER Working Paper 34836 · February 2026
AI & the CEO Paradox
What nearly 6,000 executives in four countries report about AI adoption and its impact.
~90%
of executives report no impact of AI on employment or productivity over the past three years
Survey of nearly 6,000 senior executives across established firm panels in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia (late 2025 to early 2026).
69% of firms use AI, with higher adoption at younger and more productive firms; 75% expect to be using it within three years.
Looking back three years, over 90% report no impact on employment and 89% no impact on labor productivity.
Looking forward, the same executives expect AI to raise productivity by 1.4% and cut employment by 0.7%; separately surveyed employees expect employment to rise by 0.5%.
Executives use AI themselves about 1.5 hours in a typical working week.
Why it matters
Adoption is running ahead of measurable impact. Strategic decisions about AI are currently being made on expectations, and executives and employees hold opposite ones.
NBER working paper, not yet peer-reviewed; impacts are self-reported perceptions and expectations. Source: Yotzov et al. (2026), Firm Data on AI. NBER WP 34836.